{"id":2453415,"date":"2013-10-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2013-10-15T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.outsideonline.com\/uncategorized\/your-winter-forecast-2014\/"},"modified":"2022-05-12T08:07:12","modified_gmt":"2022-05-12T14:07:12","slug":"your-winter-forecast-2014","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.outsideonline.com\/outdoor-adventure\/snow-sports\/your-winter-forecast-2014\/","title":{"rendered":"Your Winter Forecast for 2014"},"content":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s October, which means the start of intense speculation about the upcoming winter. Residents of (and visitors to) many mountain towns are hoping that the recent streak of lackluster winters means we\u2019re due for months of good snow.\u00a0 But what are the weather nerds calling for?\u00a0<\/p>\n

Well, it\u2019s hard to say.<\/p>\n

Any long-term forecasting is tricky, and at this point, no area is forecasted to get it big in 2014.\u00a0 \u201cThe science behind seasonal weather forecasting is still in its infancy,\u201d says <\/ins>the Weather Channel<\/a>\u2019s Tom Niziol, who is forecasting slightly warmer temperatures in the West and slightly cooler temps in the East, especially later in the season.<\/p>\n

Few mainstream forecasts are tailored toward snow-sport enthusiasts, but a lot of talking heads are wondering whether this year\u2019s Super Bowl<\/a>, which takes place February 2 in New Jersey\u2019s open-air New Meadowlands Stadium, will get slammed by a big winter storm. The Farmer\u2019s Almanac<\/em> <\/a>thinks so (although anyone with a degree in common sense should understand how impossible it is to predict a single day event four months out).

\"\"<\/figure>
Skiers out East might have one cause for excitement this winter. The
North Atlantic Oscillation<\/a>, which follows the spread of high and low pressure across the northern Atlantic, is predicted to be \u201cmoderately negative\u201d this winter. In a negative NAO, a big block of low pressure is weakened over Greenland, which pushes the jet stream farther south, taking storm tracks with it. \u201cWinters with moderately negative NAOs are productive because it often places the mean storm track over the New England mountains with enough cold air to make pow,\u201d says AJ LaRosa, who has been predicting East Coast snowstorms for years over at famousinternetskiers.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Negative NAO values can send storms as far south as Washington, D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia, although LaRosa sees the biggest dumps come to the Northeast when the NAO flip-flops from deeply negative to neutral. But, he admits, it\u2019s hard to predict a good winter based off of October NAO values. \u201cIt\u2019s just not that reliably predicted outside of maybe 21 days,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Out West, the snow forecast gurus at Opensnow.com<\/a> see little cause to expect more than an average winter, with some anecdotal evidence to suggest some special cases. \u201cWithout a strong El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a, I don\u2019t recommend that skiers and snowboarders put much faith in any snow forecast for the entire winter,\u201d says founder Joel Gratz, who also handles the forecasting for Colorado mountains.<\/p>\n

But what about Lake Tahoe, which has gotten the shaft two winters in a row? Local weather wizard Bryan Allegreto<\/a>\u00a0predicts a later start to the season but a healthy \u201cheart of the season\u201d (December to February), which would result in an average total snowfall for the season.<\/p>\n

Allegreto is looking to the Pacific for optimism. \u201cThe water in the Northeastern Pacific is warmer this fall, so the jet stream may be a bit further south into California this winter. We have had two dry winters in a row, so at least the odds are in our favor.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s October, which means the start of intense speculation about the upcoming winter. Many hope that the recent streak of lackluster winters means we\u2019re due for months of good snow. But the weather nerds say it’ll just be average.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1593116,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"uuid":"1a02d45b481f7ea8eed7e235f55d8319","footnotes":""},"categories":[2544],"tags":[],"byline":[1415],"ad_cat":[],"legacy-category":[],"class_list":["post-2453415","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-snow-sports","byline-ryan-dunfee"],"acf":[],"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","meta":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","headline":"Your Winter Forecast for 2014","url":"https:\/\/www.outsideonline.com\/outdoor-adventure\/snow-sports\/your-winter-forecast-2014\/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.outsideonline.com\/outdoor-adventure\/snow-sports\/your-winter-forecast-2014\/"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/migrated-images_parent\/migrated-images_57\/winter14forecast_fe.jpg","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https:\/\/cdn.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/migrated-images_parent\/migrated-images_57\/winter14forecast_fe.jpg"},"articleSection":"Snow Sports","author":[{"@type":"Person","name":"sperkins-pom"}],"creator":["sperkins-pom"],"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø Online","logo":"https:\/\/www.outsideonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/favicon-194x194-1.png"},"keywords":[],"dateCreated":"2013-10-15T00:00:00Z","datePublished":"2013-10-15T00:00:00Z","dateModified":"2022-05-12T14:07:12Z"},"rendered":"